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The Best of Both Worlds: A decision-making framework for combining traditional and contemporary forecast systems

Description:
In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts.However,inanumberofregions,theuptakeoftheseforecastsbylocalcommunitiescanbelimited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledgeto make their climate forecasts.Both approachesto seasonal climate forecasting have bene ts, and the incorporation of traditional forecast methods into contemporaryforecastsystemscanleadtoforecaststhatarelocallyrelevantandbettertrustedbytheusers.This in turn could signi cantly improve the communication and application of climate information, especially to remote communities. A number of different methodologies have been proposed for combining these forecasts. Through considering the bene ts and limitations of each approach, practical recommendations are providedonselectingamethod,intheformofadecisionframework,thattakesintoconsiderationbothuser and provider needs. The framework comprises four main decision points: 1) consideration of the level of involvement of traditional-knowledge experts or the community that is required, 2) existing levels of traditional knowledge of climate forecasting and its level of cultural sensitivity, 3) the availability of long-term data—both traditional-knowledge and contemporary-forecast components, and 4) the level of resourcing available.Noonemethodissuitableforeveryoneandeverysituation;however,thedecisionframeworkhelps to select the most appropriate method for a given situation.
Display date:
2017
Collections:
Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Content partner:
Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
Availability:
Not specified
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Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)
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